Having taken a look at the hitting, let’s now take a look at the pitching. Good pitching is invaluable, and you never have enough pitching. More than any other aspect of the game, pitching has changed the most. Everyone throws 95+MPH, and everyone has one nasty breaking pitch. The complete game is a rarity (only 28 complete games were pitched in 2024), and even 200 innings is now fading as a benchmark. I remember a conversation I had in 1998 where I predicted that every game would have at least 3 pitchers - one for every three innings - and the concept of “the starter” would disappear. We’re almost there.

Here is the NYY starting rotation:

  • Gerrit Cole - There is no question he’s the ace of the staff. He’s a stud, and has been for some time. But he has done some kind of damage to his elbow, I believe, and while he can still hump it up to 98MPH when he needs to, I am not completely sure he isn’t pitching with some pain, at least in the latter half of last season. The early off-season drama of him opting out of his contract and the Yankees calling his bluff was interesting. I suspect the fact that he was unwilling to go back out on the open market is a sign that he knows his elbow isn’t 100%. I’m pretty sure he’s doing everything to mitigate the issue and avoid TJ surgery, but 2025 should be an interesting year for him. He’s smart, but he can also overthink things, and is susceptible to the long ball and his own emotions.

  • Max Fried - Max is perhaps the biggest unknown at the moment as he approaches his first year in pinstripes. He doesn’t suck, but he is not a hard thrower, is turning 31, and does have an injury history. 8yr/$218M contract to pitch to his 38th year is suspect. His 3.07 ERA/1.164 WHIP is very respectable, but it’s the durability issue combined with the added pressure of pitching in NY that will tell the tale.

  • Carlos Rodón - Meh. Too unpredictable for me. When he’s on he can be as good as anyone, but he seems at times to be his own worst enemy. 16 wins last season is nothing to complain about, really, but his 3.96 ERA/1.22WHIP/4.39FIP don’t exactly inspire confidence. If he can get a positive mental attitude I think he can do very well. It’s all in the head for him.

  • Luis Gil - a live arm with little control. If he can learn to spot his pitches he will be devastating. His numbers show he has the tools. He won Rookie of the Year for 2024 and it was pretty well deserved. As he gains maturity and learns how to pitch as well as how to throw, he is ace material.

  • Clarke Schmidt - the very definition of a #5 starter. Can go two times through a lineup, but not a third. He’s going to have to learn to pitch into the 6th and 7th inning if he wants to remain in the rotation. Does not have a true put-away pitch. I would suspect the Yankees might see him as a trade candidate as the season goes on. His spot in the rotation is vulnerable to any number of replacements such as Clayton Beeter, Will Warren, Carlos Carrasco or even Marcus Stroman should he remain on the team.

So once again, the rotation looks solid, but there are weak spots. Rodón could succumb to pressure if he doesn’t get off to a good start. Gil could have a sophomore slump as the league figures him out. Fried might regress a bit with age and injury. Schmidt will be Schmidt, and Cole will be Cole. Next post we’ll take a look at the bullpen as well as the bench players.